id: 9e086eb8c83749af939cda4f803929fd
parent_id: 247e7bdc40c9490fbe87166ed92fb7be
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item_id: ec1518e71453490f8fe5ab75cff7180c
item_updated_time: 1786982230052
title_diff: "[]"
body_diff: "[{\"diffs\":[[0,\"-17 \"],[-1,\"evening — range-bias deep-dive complete)\\\n\\\n> **Live: G51.** Range-model bias fully localized: NOT the corrector, NOT concentration — the conditional structure of RangeNet's predictions.\\\n\\\n## Measurement chain (all committed: 55192cc, e3ebec4)\\\n\\\n1. **Audit** (1.04M samples, corr ON vs OFF): bias identical → corrector exonerated.\\\n2. **Label correction found+fixed**: fresh audit corpora had showdown-equity labels vs current-strength MC (river rows were definitionally clean; HU/flop inflated). Both corpora relabeled (676K/681K records).\\\n3. **Labels verified** by hand on spot records (board-trips, monotone-flop cases).\\\n4. **Corrected audit** (definitions aligned): HU mean_pred 0.314 vs actual 0.451, slope 0.79; multiway slopes 1.15-1.24 with means 2.5x low; river 1.28.\\\n5. **Temperature sweep** (`range_calibration` bin, HU n=43K): softening toward uniform moves mean 0.216→0.352 (combo-uniform ATC baseline at t=1) — **cannot reach 0.451**. Also: type-uniform ≠ combo-uniform (type weighting overweights pairs/suited).\\\n\\\n## Interpretation\\\n- The \"],[1,\"night — likelihood fitting launched)\\\n\\\n> **Live: G51, server healthy.** Overnight: fitting corpus collecting + MLE fit chained (bgp_0106adf15, bgp_01063a9c4).\\\n\\\n## Overnight chain (autonomous)\\\n1. Collection → `/home/jan/gen5_data/equity_v7_fit` (~10M samples, mixed 9/6/3-max, g51 pool, corrector ON) — records now carry **pre-corrector ranges + per-street action codes + opp freqs + street sizes** (commit a087658)\\\n2. `fit_likelihood` runs on ≤600K records (chain: `/tmp/kilo/overnight_fit.sh`, log: `equity_v7_fit/fit_log.txt`)\\\n3. Output: fitted (center, steep, size_slope) × 5 action classes + realized-vs-predicted diagnostics\\\n\\\n## Fitting method (a087658)\\\nRealized holdings (revealed every hand) are draws from the TRUE posterior → MLE over curve params: maximize Σ log L(realized) − Σ log Σ prior·ΠL. Beat-probs enumerated once per (hero,board), Arc-shared. Smoke-verified (\"],[0,\"pred\"]],\"start1\":31,\"start2\":31,\"length1\":1055,\"length2\":885},{\"diffs\":[[0,\"ted \"],[1,\"t\"],[0,\"ra\"],[-1,\"nges overweight opponent strength GIVEN THE ACTION SEQUENCE — a conditional-structure error: which hands take which lines. Retraining v17 with better labels/features is the fix path; no post-hoc scalar (temperature/floor) can correct it.\\\n- The residual 0.451 vs ATC 0.352 gap suggests actual opp holdings are anti-correlated with hero strength beyond card removal — likely a mix of selection effects in HU pot formation; not fully explained.\\\n- **Behavioral impact confirmed directionally**: bot underprices its strong spots → thin value missed. A8 vs AJ session hand consistent with the inverse case (overpricing opp aces less likely than underpricing own).\\\n\\\n## Options forward (decision needed)\\\n1. **7_6 likelihood fitting** — now has clean targets + verified label\"],[1,\"cks realized ±0.03).\\\n\\\n## Morning checklist (in order)\\\n1. `tail /home/jan/gen5_data/equity_v7_fit/fit_log.txt` — fitted params + diagnostics\\\n2. **Scale caveat**: fitted centers are on beat-prob scale; corrector uses Xpot percentile scale (both monotone in strength). Apply call/bet/check classes to a `cash_nl_g53.toml` (copy g51 + corr_* overrides); preflop classes fitted but NOT wired (corrector skips street 0) — later extension.\\\n3. Validate: KK replay (`replay_kk_overplay_variants`), **7_6 replay** (the #[ignore] test — the acceptance target), Harrington 51+1, sanity_check g53, A/B vs g51\\\n4. Calibration re-audit: rerun mc_calibration_analyze-style comparison if a short g53 collection is made — fitted curves should pull MC mean toward realized mean (the measured target: HU 0.31→0.45 direction)\\\n5. If 7_6 passe\"],[0,\"s +\"],[-1,\" a\"],[0,\" cal\"]],\"start1\":918,\"start2\":918,\"length1\":781,\"length2\":833},{\"diffs\":[[0,\"ion \"],[-1,\"metric (slope per bucket). The corrector's action-likelihood curves ARE the conditional structure — fitting them to r\"],[1,\"improves + sims neutral-to-positive → commit + live candidate\\\n\\\n## Context (from \"],[0,\"ea\"],[1,\"r\"],[0,\"li\"],[-1,\"zed showdown frequencies attacks exactly the diagnosed defect class. (~1-2d)\\\n2. **RangeNet v18** — retrain with the new corpora (they double as range data), richer action-history features. Bigger (2-3d + training).\\\n3. Both, in that order (1 is fast and de-risks 2's data).\\\n\\\n## Note for next session\\\n- EquityNet remains parked; all infra reusable.\\\n- equity_v6_mc + equity_v6_nocorr corpora: relabeled, MC-attached — the calibration dataset for any range work.\\\n- range_calibration bin: t-sweep, support/combo-uniform variants.\"],[1,\"er today)\\\n- Range-bias deep-dive: corrector exonerated; bias = RangeNet conditional structure; no scalar fix possible (e3ebec4)\\\n- The fitted likelihood curves ARE the conditional-structure correction layer — this is the attack on both the measured bias AND 7_6 sequence-blindness (line-conditioned likelihoods)\\\n- EquityNet parked; A8-vs-AJ session hand = short-stack cooler (verified)\"],[0,\"\\\n\\\n##\"]],\"start1\":1756,\"start2\":1756,\"length1\":653,\"length2\":477}]"
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updated_time: 2026-08-17T16:05:46.974Z
created_time: 2026-08-17T16:05:46.974Z
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